BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Michigan has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Michigan is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Michigan is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.40
20270.040.000.39
20280.040.000.38
20290.030.000.38
20300.020.000.37

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ishpeming520251980
Hamtramck419831978
Harrietta320251990
Cunard320191977
Isabella320001967
Raco320231971
Red Oak320011975
Bell Oak320042004
Sidnaw220251993
Irons219891971
Big Rapids219881967
Brush Creek220131974
Oberlin219831983
New Buffalo219931993
Ontonagon120041974
Bergland119901989
Marenisco120051988
Hungerford119921992
Chippewa Lk.120111993
Herman119911983
Hiawatha Nf120222007
Gibbs City120001982
Betchler Lks120251992
Brocky Lake120121987
Wilson119991975

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.