BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Kentucky has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Kentucky: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2016 — from 0.09 in 2011 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2016TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2016 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2016 — from 0.09 in 2011 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662016
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20120.040.000.28
20130.030.000.27
20140.020.000.27
20150.020.000.26
20160.010.000.25

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drakesboro319911971
Boxville319711971
Shiloh220112011
Levee219681966
Mcbrayer219881966
Plum219821966
Cumberlnd Gp120111993
Lovelacevile119981980
Cedar Grove119861971
Sulphur Lick119831979
Pleasurevill119891989
Monticello119981998
Carter119831983
Beattyville119901990
Million119861967
Hodgenville119851985
Demunbruns119691966
Gatewood119861985
Hudson119711971
Eastview119871987
Dixie119731967
Joy119681968
Shelbyville119721972
Glencoe119841983
Buena Vista120071967

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.