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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Oklahoma has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+141%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Oklahoma: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.52.68.3
20265.52.78.3
20275.52.78.3
20285.62.78.4
20295.62.88.4

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver3520181979
Clear Lake2520241992
Cooperton2320241992
Hardesty2120241970
Hunter1920241992
Woodward1720241992
Jet1420241992
Rosston1320181969
Douglas1220221967
Hooker1120241993
Randlett920241967
Grimes920241967
Cashion920241992
Foraker920241992
Ft Sill East919941994
Wakita820161967
Hollis820241993
Arapaho820141992
Keyes820241992
Ft Sill West819941994
Wichita Mtns819941994
Lookout720241968
Felt720241968
Loco619851967
Erick620241976

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.