BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Wisconsin has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Wisconsin: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.11
20260.000.000.11
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10
20290.000.000.10

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cochrane619661966
Pardeeville519741974
Pigeon Creek320152013
Chaffey220161970
Dresser219931972
Newburg Crns219701970
Conover220231998
Hazel Green220221971
Iron River119931990
Minong119931971
Grand View120051968
Montreal119881976
Land O Lakes119911977
Hudson119981979
Union Twp120241967
Cumberland119831966
Exeland119771977
Gilman119831983
Omro 2120132013
Mcnaughton119911991
Eagle River119781978
Popple River119671967
Crandon119911971
Amberg119931993
Wausaukee120021996

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.