BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in South Dakota has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+195%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in South Dakota: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 0.89–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 0.89–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.863.9
20262.40.873.9
20272.40.883.9
20282.40.883.9
20292.40.893.9

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Railroad Butte3820221995
Harding1520191968
Pleasant Val1420241992
Wind Cave Np1320241999
Lacreek1220231991
Ardmore920191977
Elk Mountain920041992
French Creek920051995
Maurine820241969
Rockyford720231967
Owanka720221967
Rosebud520111967
Laplant520141971
Fort Pierre520241968
Eagle Butte520121990
Cottonwood520241992
Lightning Cr520221992
Silver City520021994
Geddes420231967
Ft Thompson420111969
Forbes420241984
Volunteer420191967
Cedar Pass420231967
Tripp320241976
Reva320231979

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.