BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in South Dakota has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+197%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in South Dakota: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in South Dakota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.97–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in South Dakota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.97–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.944.0
20272.50.954.0
20282.50.954.0
20292.50.964.1
20302.50.974.1

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Railroad Butte3820221995
Maurine1520251969
Lacreek1520251991
Pleasant Val1420241992
Harding1120251968
Tripp920251976
Cedar Pass920251967
Ardmore920191977
Elk Mountain920041992
French Creek920051995
Rockyford720251967
Owanka720221967
Volunteer720251967
Rosebud520111967
Laplant520141971
Eagle Butte520121990
Hazelrodt520251992
Lightning Cr520221992
Wind Cave Np520251999
Silver City520021994
Geddes420251967
Ft Thompson420111969
Forbes320251984
Ottumwa320251967
Badlands320211983

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.