BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Utah has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Utah. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Utah is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Utah is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.003.1
20260.730.003.1
20270.690.003.0
20280.650.003.0
20290.620.003.0

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford Mts2020232004
Clive1120142004
Lynn1020231982
Delta1020241987
Wellington1020022002
Pine Creek1020211998
Timpie Spg920031979
Willow Creek720241986
Kelton719941992
Lost Cr. Res720161995
Leamington620171992
La Sal620001993
La Sal 2520062005
Snowville520242004
Hanna520231998
Wendover420111973
Grouse Creek420101983
Gold Hill420221987
Wah Wah419931989
Callao420241992
Indian Peak420211994
Peplin Mountain420242002
Grantsville420242002
Canyon Rims420071998
Alton420041997

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.