BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Nebraska has surged: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+397%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Nebraska: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.84.1
20273.01.84.2
20283.01.94.2
20293.11.94.2
20303.11.94.3

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marsland7120212018
Eagle Creek1720251967
Piester Lake1520251968
Brownlee1420251990
Mullen1420231990
Chambers1320252023
Oglala Nat. Grass.1120251999
Kimball1020251993
Nenzel1020252018
Murdock920252018
Crescent Lk820251980
Hendley820252018
Liberty 3820252009
Johnson720251975
Swan Lake720251969
Johnstown720251967
Crawford720251980
Crookston620252018
Bassett620252018
Agate 2520252002
Paxton520161970
Liberty420031971
Gordon420251975
Sutherland420252023
Belvidere320251968

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.