BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Nebraska has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+365%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Nebraska: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.74.1
20262.91.74.1
20272.91.84.1
20283.01.84.2
20293.01.84.2

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marsland7120212018
Oglala Nat. Grass.1520231999
Dalton1420241973
Eagle Creek1420241967
Mullen1420231990
Swan Lake1220231969
Piester Lake1220241968
Wheeler Co920241979
Bassett820242018
Humboldt620242018
Agate 2520242002
Paxton520161970
Gordon520241975
Nenzel520242018
Chambers520232023
Hendley520242018
Liberty420031971
Johnstown420241967
Brownlee420241990
Kenesaw320241976
Bartlett319761967
Thurston320191999
Kimball320221993
Crescent Lk320161980
Maxwell320242018

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.