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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Kansas has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+148%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Kansas: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.0–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.0–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.97.6
20265.83.97.7
20275.84.07.7
20285.94.07.7
20295.94.07.8

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hays4020141967
Covert2820241967
Dalton2720241977
Jamestown2520242000
Beloit 22420182005
Ashland1920211969
Hollenberg1820231969
Coldwater1620221969
Susank1620222000
Ash Valley1620192002
Damar1620162000
Kanopolis1320241967
Jewell1220051970
Phillipsburg1220221967
Jewell 21220242006
Lincolnville1020242002
Chapman919811967
Beloit920032000
Coats820241967
Gray820191967
Berwet820242001
Goessel820242000
Buckeye720231967
Logan720221967
Olsburg720242000

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.