BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Mississippi has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Mississippi: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.19 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±194.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.19 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.74
20250.000.000.74
20260.000.000.74
20270.000.000.74
20280.000.000.74

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diberville1619871979
Olive Branch319841967
Tupelo319891966
Fontainbleau319781966
Walthall219781970
Neely220111974
Benndale220231974
Latimer220191988
Olive Branch 2220212021
Beverly119751966
Dundee119921992
Commerce119931968
Tchula119701970
Benton119991972
Utica119761966
Lucien119791967
Fayette119921966
Cockrum119861966
Duck Hill119881969
Lake120091967
Trace Lee120132013
Columbia120051971
Cybur120191966
Corinth120231972
Macon120171966

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.