BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in North Carolina has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.78
20260.350.000.78
20270.340.000.78
20280.340.000.77
20290.340.000.77

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrimon720231970
Broad Creek420241993
Cayton420242010
Mattamuskeet420211998
Wards Corner320231966
Green Swamp320032002
Montague320241992
Roseboro320021997
Rhems319931990
Jamesville320241983
Sheep Ridge219941994
Speed219751971
Kinston220091967
Washington220242001
Spring Hope220242002
Cypress Cr220061990
Supply220241992
Shallotte119911967
Myrtle Grove120241966
Hallsboro120031999
Raeford120191990
Arapahoe119951971
Beargrass119771977
Climax119861986
Mooresville119861967

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.