BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Colorado has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
146Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has risen sharply in Colorado: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Colorado is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Colorado is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.3
20271.80.004.2
20281.80.004.2
20291.80.004.2
20301.70.004.1

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abarr1520241970
Cokedale1220251995
Gilpin1120251970
Neegrande1120251993
Mica Butte1019871971
Edison920251988
Pinos Creek919901988
Pritchett920251995
Alamosa820251988
Limon720182013
Rockport720241994
Briggsdale620211971
Waverly620181990
Aspen520102009
Wilson Creek520251990
Cone Mtn520241988
Haswell520241992
Radium520111998
Yampa420231970
Lamar420211973
Walden420251993
Red Cliff419931990
Pinon420251992
Ragged Mtn.420191994
Basin420251995

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.