BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Colorado has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Colorado: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Colorado is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Colorado is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.4
20261.90.004.3
20271.90.004.3
20281.80.004.3
20291.80.004.2

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abarr1520241970
Neegrande1120241993
Mesita1120242005
Mica Butte1019871971
Cokedale1020241995
Pinos Creek919901988
Stoneham920211993
Wilson Creek820241990
Basin820231995
Limon720182013
Pritchett720241995
Rockport720241994
Briggsdale620211971
Rush620221984
Waverly620181990
Alamosa620241988
Buffalo Park620231992
Pinon620241992
Aspen520102009
Gilpin520241970
Cone Mtn520241988
Haswell520241992
Radium520111998
Gardner520241998
Yampa420231970

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.