BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Missouri has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has risen sharply in Missouri: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.14–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.14–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.140.51
20270.320.140.51
20280.330.140.51
20290.330.140.51
20300.330.140.51

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deventer1020252012
Hayti1020212019
Kennett820252015
Filley319931993
Blodgett320252013
Marshfield320212015
Cassville219831973
Weston220172015
Mincy220182014
Norborne120232016
Peace Valley120081976
Sweden119841984
Pineville120222019
Cp Girardeau120251967
Cameron120031997
Ironton119791973
Kahoka2120112011
Wesco119841972
Barnard120082008
Handley120192019
Graydon120101969
Reeds120111983
Washington119771970
Hayden119881985
Centertown119921977

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.