BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Missouri has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.14–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.14–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.130.50
20260.320.130.50
20270.320.130.50
20280.320.130.50
20290.320.140.50

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kennett1220242015
Hayti1020212019
Blodgett420242013
Deventer320242012
Filley319931993
Trenton320221998
Marshfield320212015
Cassville219831973
Weston220172015
Mincy220182014
Norborne120232016
Peace Valley120081976
Sweden119841984
Pineville120222019
Cp Girardeau120241967
Cameron120031997
Ironton119791973
Kahoka2120112011
Wesco119841972
Barnard120082008
Handley120192019
Graydon120101969
Reeds120111983
Washington119771970
Hayden119881985

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.