BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in North Dakota has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in North Dakota: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.48 (95% range 0.04–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.48 (95% range 0.04–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.030.91
20260.470.030.92
20270.470.030.92
20280.480.030.92
20290.480.040.92

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Creek1220221971
Dunn Center820211969
Roosevelt Pk420191982
Carson320241988
Buchanan320241974
Sydney219771977
Cooperstown219971997
Regan220221986
Dickinson220241970
Loraine220001983
Stanley220191969
Gorham220171969
Glen Ullin220221988
Solen220242005
Forman119741968
Walcott119901967
Lake George120021970
Danzig119941982
Kempton120061996
Horsehead Lk120191980
Rolla120222022
Niles119971996
Ft Yates120041973
Carpio120001968
Tobacco120191968

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.