BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in North Dakota has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+96%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in North Dakota: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.06–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in North Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.06–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.050.94
20270.500.050.94
20280.500.050.95
20290.500.060.95
20300.510.060.95

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Creek1220221971
Glen Ullin620251988
Gorham520251969
Solen520252005
Roosevelt Pk420191982
Buchanan320241974
Sydney219771977
Cooperstown219971997
Regan220221986
Dickinson220241970
Loraine220001983
Stanley220191969
Forman119741968
Walcott119901967
Carson120251988
Lake George120231970
Danzig119941982
Kempton120061996
Horsehead Lk120191980
Rolla120222022
Niles119971996
Ft Yates120041973
Dunn Center120251969
Carpio120001968
Tobacco120191968

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.