BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Montana has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Montana. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Montana is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.29–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Montana is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.29–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.283.1
20271.70.293.1
20281.70.293.1
20291.70.293.1
20301.70.293.1

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miles City3920252015
Powderville2820251968
Harlem1420181970
Locate1320251981
East Glacier Park1220252018
Cabin Creek1220252018
Savage1120251968
Wolf Point1120242015
Hehn Draw1020252016
Highwood920251969
Ingomar820251968
Ester Lake820242015
Kalispell620221968
Oswego620231978
Forsyth620231980
Jordan South620252016
Cramer Creek620151994
Cleveland520251980
Webster520251981
Two Dot420241976
Thompson Riv420091993
Pablo Res.420182001
Noxon420232001
Flatwillow 2420232010
Whitefish Lake420232018

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.