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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Minnesota is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Minnesota is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.14
20260.020.000.14
20270.020.000.14
20280.020.000.14
20290.010.000.13

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Money Creek520242003
Nebish420152015
Lude420001981
Nett Lake420182018
Ash Creek320161983
Lakeville320011976
Waskish319781978
Hartland219901990
Minnetonka220141970
Knapp220241996
Mille Lacs220081968
Bena219671967
Chatfield119841984
Huntley119671967
Sherburne Nr120232023
Big Stone120052005
Courtland119871985
Dawson119791979
Princeton120151971
Osseo120181983
St Stephen119691969
Gluek119801971
Chokio119691969
Cromwell119981968
Wigwam Bay119931969

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.