Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow

CaprimulgidaeAerial insectivoresAntrostomus carolinensis

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Chuck-will's-widow

The Chuck-will's-widow (Antrostomus carolinensis) is a North American member of the Nightjars & Nighthawks (Caprimulgidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
7.5–12 in long (19–30 cm) — a cryptic, big-mouthed bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 904 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 23 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Caprimulgidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Chuck-will's-widow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.10–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.10–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.130.25
20260.180.120.24
20270.170.110.23
20280.170.110.23
20290.160.100.22

Where the Chuck-will's-widow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Chuck-will's-widow, sized by most recent count.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend by State

Chuck-will's-widow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-67%196896
Arkansas-62%196947
Delaware+42%19687
Florida+2%1968114
Georgia-64%196892
Illinois-77%19714
Indiana-85%19685
Kansas-78%197618
Kentucky-74%196929
Louisiana-34%196937
Maryland-2%196823
Mississippi-82%196843
Missouri-46%196951
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a2
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a2
North Carolina+7%196869
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Oklahoma-14%196957
South Carolina-28%196849
Tennessee-35%196841
Texas-33%196986
Virginia-67%196829
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a1

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Chuck-will's-widow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+95%197029
Edwards Plateau-42%197016
Oaks and Prairies-23%196955
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-88%196933
Central Hardwoods-48%1968101
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-47%196990
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-93%196920
Southeastern Coastal Plain-45%1968296
Appalachian Mountains-81%196857
Piedmont-35%196890
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-19%196839
Peninsular Florida-15%196871

Chuck-will's-widow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 58% since 1968. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.