BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.001.8
20260.870.001.8
20270.850.001.8
20280.840.001.8
20290.830.001.8

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague820241990
Shallotte719911967
Hamlet720241995
Maple Hill620231996
Wards Corner520121966
Cayton520232015
California 2520242014
Arapahoe419951966
Jordan419911967
Table Rock420222015
Grandy419741973
Belgrade420192019
Broad Creek420241993
Hulls Xroads420022001
Supply420241992
Fairmont319811968
Bethel320112002
Jackson320171995
Rowland320011990
Jamesville320241983
Merrimon220231969
Mashoes219821972
Beargrass219811973
Sheep Ridge220241994
Spring Hope220242019

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseyohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.