BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.001.8
20270.870.001.8
20280.860.001.8
20290.840.001.8
20300.830.001.8

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague1520251990
Fairview1020252025
Jamesville820251983
Shallotte719911967
Maple Hill620231996
Supply620251992
Wards Corner520121966
Cayton520232015
Broad Creek520251993
Hamlet520251995
California 2520252014
Arapahoe419951966
Jordan419911967
Table Rock420222015
Grandy419741973
Belgrade420192019
Hulls Xroads420022001
Fairmont319811968
Sheep Ridge320251994
Bethel320112002
Jackson320171995
Rowland320011990
Merrimon220231969
Mashoes219821972
Beargrass219811973

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseyohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.