BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.1
20260.970.002.1
20270.930.002.0
20280.880.002.0
20290.840.001.9

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Havana620212010
Blakely519991968
Hatfield 2420242017
Lurton420231972
Waldron320241967
Rupert320241968
Zion320231969
Russell320172010
Marshall320192011
Rudy320242011
Boston Mtn.320242019
Four Lakes320011994
Ramsey219971967
Locust Bayou220231967
Stamps219961969
Saffell220191972
Stark220111967
Fulton220231967
Ravenden Springs220142010
Springhill220222010
Stephens220242010
Magazine Mtn220211993
Princeton220141998
Old Milo120241967
Eudora119941967

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.