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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has collapsed in Mississippi: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.001.3
20270.120.001.2
20280.070.001.2
20290.030.001.1
20300.000.001.1

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walthall1119871970
Scooba919821967
Tchula619751970
Tchula 2619941976
Scooba 2619871983
Corinth420251972
Latimer420191989
Macon320251967
Duffee320081973
De Soto320192008
Trace Chickasaw320252012
Utica219891966
Cockrum220011966
Tupelo220221969
Neely220121974
Waynesboro219981967
Star220252022
Latimer 2220222022
Trace Choctaw220182012
Embry220251988
Trace Lee220182013
Necaise220221982
Diberville119861979
Beverly119681968
Commerce119901967

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.