BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Texas has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Texas is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Texas is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.020.51
20270.260.020.51
20280.260.010.50
20290.250.010.49
20300.240.000.49

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whit Mtn.1720181994
Graford820191982
Easton 2620252014
Weches520252003
Paige520252015
Easton420131994
Mt. Selman420252009
Muldoon320251970
Fitzhugh319831969
Pidcoke320171972
Adamsville320251973
Crossroads320251968
Weatherford320251968
Selden320251968
Cottonwood320251970
Leakey320251994
Union Hill320242003
Bon Wier320071996
Smyrna 2320232015
Schroeder219941972
Boerne220231967
Utopia220211984
Town Bluff220231973
Georgetown219851971
E Georgetown219751975

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.