BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Texas has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.020.51
20260.260.020.51
20270.260.010.50
20280.250.000.49
20290.240.000.49

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whit Mtn.1720181994
Graford820191982
Weatherford720231968
Cottonwood720241970
Athens520231973
Massey Lake420231970
Easton420131994
Fitzhugh319831969
Pidcoke320171972
Selden320241968
Union Hill320242003
Bon Wier320071996
Mt. Selman320242009
Paige320242015
Easton 2320242014
Smyrna 2320232015
Schroeder219941972
Muldoon220241970
Boerne220231967
Utopia220211984
Town Bluff220231973
Georgetown219851971
E Georgetown219751975
Adamsville220231973
Winchell220241998

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.