BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.77
20270.340.000.76
20280.330.000.74
20290.310.000.73
20300.300.000.72

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt420071966
Collinwood420241975
Whiteville320251966
Silerton320241966
Trenton320111966
Bradyville320041966
Brownsville219921972
Big Sandy220231966
Mansfield220251966
Indian Mound219971967
Campbellsville220101966
Corryton Rd219921966
Tiptonville120131989
Pawpaw119961977
Moscow120241966
Tibbs120011972
Sweetlips120131966
Pond Creek119911991
Wrigley120211969
Lewis Forest120241966
Belotes Bend120181968
White House119681968
Petersburg120021968
Jones Gap119871982
Tullahoma119771971

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.