BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.000.79
20260.360.000.78
20270.340.000.77
20280.330.000.76
20290.320.000.74

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt420071966
Collinwood420241975
Silerton320241966
Trenton320111966
Bradyville320041966
Brownsville219921972
Big Sandy220231966
Indian Mound219971967
Campbellsville220101966
Corryton Rd219921966
Tiptonville120131989
Pawpaw119961977
Moscow120241966
Tibbs120011972
Whiteville120241966
Mansfield120241966
Sweetlips120131966
Pond Creek119911991
Wrigley120211969
Lewis Forest120241966
Belotes Bend120181968
White House119681968
Petersburg120021968
Jones Gap119871982
Tullahoma119771971

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.