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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.000.82
20270.300.000.81
20280.290.000.81
20290.280.000.79
20300.270.000.78

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hilda620211994
Ironton519801972
Akers520251967
West Plains520242015
Bennett520251994
Pulaski420231975
Wesco420191973
Mincy420252014
Union419981990
Hayden320171975
Richland320212015
Rueter 2320252023
Marshfield320162009
Sweden220231970
Graydon220191971
Warren219801971
Eugene220252013
Williamsvill220251994
Osage Beach220252021
Peace Valley120251975
Cassville119951967
Pineville120101980
Cp Girardeau119851985
Cascade120241969
Clementine119951974

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.