BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.83
20260.300.000.82
20270.290.000.81
20280.280.000.80
20290.270.000.79

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hilda620211994
Ironton519801972
West Plains520242015
Pulaski420231975
Akers420241967
Wesco420191973
Union419981990
Hayden320171975
Richland320212015
Marshfield320162009
Sweden220231970
Graydon220191971
Warren219801971
Mincy220242014
Rueter 2220242023
Bennett220241994
Peace Valley120231975
Cassville119951967
Pineville120101980
Cp Girardeau119851985
Cascade120241969
Clementine119951974
Handley119871983
Filley120131975
Reeds120161982

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.