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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Florida has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Florida. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.99–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.99–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.03.1
20272.11.03.1
20282.11.03.1
20292.11.03.1
20302.00.993.1

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crewsville1820062000
Palmdale1520231987
Goethe1320252010
Dowling Park1220251987
Broad Branch1120251968
Eglin A.F.B.1020111995
Chassahowitz1020251997
Cross City920231988
Steinhatchee820231966
Pinecrest720251970
Alva720231987
Vero Beach720071993
Green Swamp720251987
Seminole Hls620001967
Telogia619841968
Micanopy619911966
Mabel520111967
Apalachicola520251988
Citrus520252010
Belmont420251966
Ft Gadsden420251969
Myakka Head420041966
Blackwater420251987
Arbuckle420191987
Kendall419911987

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.