BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in South Carolina has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in South Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in South Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.0
20261.20.003.0
20271.10.002.9
20281.10.002.9
20291.10.002.9

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitmire920242019
Mount Pisgah820211998
Sandhills620241994
Dillon520141975
New Holland420241975
Ridgeway420212010
Nixville420211998
Anderson420091977
Little Mtn319871967
Landrum319921987
Nixonville319941987
Lowrys320212017
Pinewood320141998
Cauthens Xrd320211982
Red Bluff320232023
Johns Isle219791966
Jamestown220051967
Holly Hill220241978
Plum Branch220221977
Salem220232010
Blacksburg220131998
Olar220191998
Dale220241998
Hardeeville120241967
Rome120241967

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.