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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Alabama is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Alabama is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.001.1
20270.470.001.1
20280.420.001.1
20290.380.001.0
20300.340.000.97

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jena920251981
Warrior Std620251969
Latham 2620252006
Liberty City 2620252017
Bay Minette620251996
Whitehouse520251980
South420111967
Mt. Gilead420251993
Georgetown420251994
Vina420231996
Millerville320241966
Lanett320151966
Brantley320141968
Mclellan320251967
Latham320001967
Millry320011970
Bon Secour320231993
Courtland320231997
Helicon320221996
Summitt219781966
Dearmanville219831968
Greensport220251966
Greensboro220241966
Billingsley220191966
Wallsboro220051967

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

arkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.