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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Virginia is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Virginia is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.50
20260.110.000.49
20270.110.000.49
20280.100.000.48
20290.100.000.48

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Pickett N619951994
Truhart420242017
Surry420241977
Waverly319871967
Quinby320221966
Chincoteag W220191992
Cape Charles220171992
White Stone220151966
Wylliesburg219911981
Jerome119781978
Ft Pickett S119951993
Gloucester120191992
Walkers120231992
Natural Brid119831983
Amherst120072000
Shipman120142014
Concord120131974
Mannboro120181970
Church Road119851967
Sharps120221967
Irisburg120242013
Ringgold119951992
Brodnax120241973
Newsoms119981969
Branchville120061966

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.