BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Kansas has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-78%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has collapsed in Kansas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.24
20260.010.000.23
20270.000.000.23
20280.000.000.23
20290.000.000.23

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grantville419861984
Lapland220111974
Chapman219811979
Rock Creek220181991
Longton120211976
Coldwater120141983
Dover120221979
Barclay120132013
Wreford120141977
Morehead120002000
Buckeye120152000
Reece120242002
Berwet120182002
Solomon120172017
Trading Post120122000
Seneca120081977
Olsburg120182018
Rock Creek 2120222022

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.