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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.79–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.79–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.802.2
20271.50.802.2
20281.50.792.2
20291.50.792.2
20301.50.792.2

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts West1220252004
Mcalester1119911969
Sickles1020211992
Wichita Mtns East920252004
Ft Sill West919941994
Phroso820251991
Colony819951995
Barnsdall719761968
Chester719881972
Wichita Mtns719941994
Erick620191970
Bethel620251993
Ouachita Nf520251991
Woodward520251992
Big Cedar420241967
Phillips420011970
Baron320231968
Grimes320251970
Goodwater320211992
Matoy320251995
Hee Mountain320231999
Pushmataha320231994
Loco219851968
Canadian220131967
Verden220171967

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiosouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.