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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.75–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.75–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.772.1
20261.50.772.1
20271.40.762.1
20281.40.762.1
20291.40.752.1

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcalester1119911969
Sickles1020211992
Ft Sill West919941994
Colony819951995
Barnsdall719761968
Chester719881972
Wichita Mtns719941994
Erick620191970
Sandbluff619931992
Wichita Mts West620222004
Phroso520241991
Wichita Mtns East520222004
Big Cedar420241967
Phillips420011970
Heyburn420241992
Ouachita Nf320241991
Baron320231968
Goodwater320211992
Hee Mountain320231999
Pushmataha320231994
Loco219851968
Canadian220131967
Verden220171967
Grimes220241970
Beaver219831983

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiosouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.