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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chuck-will's-widow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chuck-will's-widow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.55
20260.090.000.54
20270.080.000.53
20280.070.000.52
20290.060.000.50

Chuck-will's-widow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Grove320241967
Daniel Boone319881982
Hegira220221992
Monticello220151968
Mckee220232023
Merrimac220241971
Joy220171981
Lovelacevile119921967
Shiloh120131967
Canton120161967
Keysburg119831969
Iron Bridge119881982
Sulphur Lick120231968
Sunnybrook119991999
Bardwell120001971
Riverqueen120172009
Mammoth Cave North120092009
Levee119791979
Kings Mtn119831983
Mcbrayer119811968
Hodgenville119861986
Johnsonville119911982
Demunbruns120131967
Gatewood120001967
Hudson120001968

Chuck-will's-widow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.