BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chuck-will's-widow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrantvilleKANSAS41986
UnionMISSOURI41998
LaplandKANSAS22011
Rock CreekKANSAS22018
WarrenMISSOURI21980
DoverKANSAS12022
BarclayKANSAS12013
WrefordKANSAS12014
SenecaKANSAS12008
LongtonKANSAS12021
Rock Creek 2KANSAS12022
MoreheadKANSAS12000
ReeceKANSAS12024
Trading PostKANSAS12012
OlsburgKANSAS12018
FilleyMISSOURI12013
WashingtonMISSOURI11977
DanvilleMISSOURI12009
OhioMISSOURI11989
Sni MillsMISSOURI11982
RensselaerMISSOURI11993
RockinghamMISSOURI11992
GildehouseMISSOURI11989
FrankfordMISSOURI12024
CameronMISSOURI12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.