BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chuck-will's-widow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.86
20270.000.000.86
20280.000.000.86
20290.000.000.86
20300.000.000.86

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TchulaMISSISSIPPI61975
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI61994
MaynardARKANSAS32025
SaffellARKANSAS22019
RoselandLOUISIANA22006
EudoraARKANSAS11994
West TylerARKANSAS11970
South BendARKANSAS11999
HarrisburgARKANSAS12010
LafeARKANSAS12021
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12007
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12025
BardwellKENTUCKY12000
MayflowerLOUISIANA11988
RayvilleLOUISIANA11999
FloydLOUISIANA12001
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11990
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI12009
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI11985
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12013
PawpawTENNESSEE11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.