BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Piedmont has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Piedmont is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Piedmont is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.67
20260.310.000.66
20270.300.000.65
20280.290.000.65
20290.290.000.64

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA61995
Liberty City 2ALABAMA52024
ForsythGEORGIA42019
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA41991
Hulls XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA42002
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA42021
AndersonSOUTH-CAROLINA42009
MillervilleALABAMA32024
LanettALABAMA32015
HollonvilleGEORGIA32003
FairplayGEORGIA31985
WashingtonGEORGIA32018
Curry HillGEORGIA32019
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA31987
LowrysSOUTH-CAROLINA32021
Cauthens XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA32021
Liberty CityALABAMA22011
NixburgALABAMA21998
RutledgeGEORGIA22022
WhitesburgGEORGIA22024
RolandGEORGIA22023
Carrs StationGEORGIA22024
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA21999
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.