BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.002.1
20270.920.002.0
20280.910.002.0
20290.910.002.0
20300.900.002.0

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzhughTEXAS31983
PidcokeTEXAS32017
AdamsvilleTEXAS32025
LeakeyTEXAS32025
BoerneTEXAS22023
UtopiaTEXAS22021
GeorgetownTEXAS21985
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
Dripping SpgTEXAS22025
MontellTEXAS22023
Valley SpgsTEXAS11971
San SabaTEXAS12018
KempnerTEXAS12024
LeanderTEXAS11995
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12013
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.