BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 277% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+277%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 277% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.960.002.1
20260.960.002.1
20270.950.002.1
20280.950.002.1
20290.940.002.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzhughTEXAS31983
PidcokeTEXAS32017
BoerneTEXAS22023
UtopiaTEXAS22021
GeorgetownTEXAS21985
AdamsvilleTEXAS22023
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
LeakeyTEXAS22022
MontellTEXAS22023
Valley SpgsTEXAS11971
San SabaTEXAS12018
KempnerTEXAS12024
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11995
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12013
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.