BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.44–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.44–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.493.1
20271.80.483.1
20281.80.473.1
20291.80.453.1
20301.80.443.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrewsvilleFLORIDA182006
PalmdaleFLORIDA152023
GoetheFLORIDA132025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA102025
PinecrestFLORIDA72025
AlvaFLORIDA72023
Vero BeachFLORIDA72007
Green SwampFLORIDA72025
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
MabelFLORIDA52011
CitrusFLORIDA52025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42004
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
KendallFLORIDA41991
Indiantown 2FLORIDA42025
PinelandsFLORIDA42024
BelmoreFLORIDA32024
SalvistaFLORIDA31979
Ft MccoyFLORIDA32025
St LucieFLORIDA32025
Island GroveFLORIDA32025
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
WebbFLORIDA32025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31990
RomeoFLORIDA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.