BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.43–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.43–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.493.2
20261.80.473.1
20271.80.463.1
20281.80.453.1
20291.80.433.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrewsvilleFLORIDA182006
PalmdaleFLORIDA152023
GoetheFLORIDA132024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA82024
AlvaFLORIDA72023
Vero BeachFLORIDA72007
WebbFLORIDA72024
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
MabelFLORIDA52011
CitrusFLORIDA52024
RomeoFLORIDA42019
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42004
Ft MccoyFLORIDA42024
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
KendallFLORIDA41991
PinelandsFLORIDA42024
BelmoreFLORIDA32024
SalvistaFLORIDA31979
St LucieFLORIDA32024
Island GroveFLORIDA32024
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31990
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22022
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.