BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.050.39
20260.220.050.38
20270.210.050.38
20280.210.050.38
20290.210.040.38

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND52024
SinepuxentMARYLAND51978
Furnace TownMARYLAND52023
TruhartVIRGINIA42024
MiltonDELAWARE32013
MelitotaMARYLAND31981
HongaMARYLAND32023
MadisonMARYLAND32024
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY32013
QuinbyVIRGINIA32022
HolleyvilleDELAWARE22004
GeorgetownDELAWARE22022
ViennaMARYLAND22024
FruitlandMARYLAND21996
MardelaMARYLAND22014
BerlinMARYLAND22022
White StoneVIRGINIA22015
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA22019
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA22017
HarringtonDELAWARE12004
FredericaDELAWARE11967
FrankfordDELAWARE11978
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE11976
Pt RepublicMARYLAND11989
Tall TimbersMARYLAND12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.