BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chuck-will's-widow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.13
20270.020.000.13
20280.020.000.13
20290.020.000.12
20300.010.000.12

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA42022
CartersvilleGEORGIA32025
Zaleski S.F.OHIO31996
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA31992
SummittALABAMA21978
DearmanvilleALABAMA21983
GreensportALABAMA22025
OdenvilleALABAMA22023
Borden SprngALABAMA21998
BrooksvilleALABAMA22010
KymulgaALABAMA22019
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA22024
OneontaALABAMA22012
TalladegaALABAMA22025
LinwoodGEORGIA22019
MonticelloKENTUCKY22015
MckeeKENTUCKY22023
Corryton RdTENNESSEE21992
TradeALABAMA12010
Pine GroveALABAMA12025
DawsonALABAMA11995
Sunny EveALABAMA12023
Smyer LakeALABAMA12024
Mt OliveALABAMA12023
MaytownALABAMA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.