BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+95%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chuck-will's-widow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chuck-will's-widow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.220.66
20260.450.220.67
20270.450.230.67
20280.460.230.68
20290.460.240.68

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SicklesOKLAHOMA102021
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA91994
ColonyOKLAHOMA81995
ChesterOKLAHOMA71988
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA71994
ErickOKLAHOMA62019
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA62022
PhrosoOKLAHOMA52024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA52022
ChapmanKANSAS21981
VerdenOKLAHOMA22017
GrimesOKLAHOMA22024
BeaverOKLAHOMA21983
WoodwardOKLAHOMA22024
WinchellTEXAS22024
ColdwaterKANSAS12014
BuckeyeKANSAS12015
SolomonKANSAS12017
BerwetKANSAS12018
Liberty 3NEBRASKA12024
ReedOKLAHOMA12002
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA12010
DouglasOKLAHOMA12010
TegardenOKLAHOMA12002
LookoutOKLAHOMA11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.