BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.311.8
20261.00.271.8
20271.00.241.8
20280.970.211.7
20290.940.171.7

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McalesterOKLAHOMA111991
HavanaARKANSAS62021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA61993
BlakelyARKANSAS51999
AthensTEXAS52023
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS42024
ChathamLOUISIANA41975
Flat CreekLOUISIANA42015
Big CedarOKLAHOMA42024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA42001
EastonTEXAS42013
WaldronARKANSAS32024
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
FishvilleLOUISIANA32016
Fishville 2LOUISIANA32024
LinvilleLOUISIANA32024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA32021
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA32023
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA32024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA32023
Union HillTEXAS32024
Bon WierTEXAS32007
Mt. SelmanTEXAS32024
Easton 2TEXAS32024
Smyrna 2TEXAS32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.