BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.16–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.16–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.291.8
20271.00.261.8
20280.980.231.7
20290.950.191.7
20300.920.161.7

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McalesterOKLAHOMA111991
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS72025
HavanaARKANSAS62021
BethelOKLAHOMA62025
Easton 2TEXAS62025
BlakelyARKANSAS51999
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA52025
WechesTEXAS52025
WaldronARKANSAS42025
ChathamLOUISIANA41975
Flat CreekLOUISIANA42015
Big CedarOKLAHOMA42024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA42001
EastonTEXAS42013
Mt. SelmanTEXAS42025
Old MiloARKANSAS32025
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS32025
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
FishvilleLOUISIANA32016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA32021
MatoyOKLAHOMA32025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA32023
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA32023
CrossroadsTEXAS32025
Union HillTEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.