BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.001.1
20270.510.001.1
20280.500.001.0
20290.490.001.0
20300.480.001.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whit Mtn.TEXAS172018
GrafordTEXAS82019
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA71976
PaigeTEXAS52025
MuldoonTEXAS32025
WeatherfordTEXAS32025
SeldenTEXAS32025
CottonwoodTEXAS32025
LocoOKLAHOMA21985
TatumsOKLAHOMA22025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22025
SchroederTEXAS21994
E GeorgetownTEXAS21975
Massey LakeTEXAS22025
RhomeTEXAS21979
GainesvilleTEXAS21967
CarlosTEXAS22024
Wills PointTEXAS22015
ComancheTEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12004
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12025
BeggsOKLAHOMA12018
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12022
NobleOKLAHOMA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.