BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.68
20260.330.000.67
20270.320.000.66
20280.300.000.64
20290.290.000.63

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HildaMISSOURI62021
IrontonMISSOURI51980
West PlainsMISSOURI52024
LurtonARKANSAS42023
PulaskiMISSOURI42023
AkersMISSOURI42024
WescoMISSOURI42019
CollinwoodTENNESSEE42024
CourtlandALABAMA32023
RupertARKANSAS32024
ZionARKANSAS32023
RussellARKANSAS32017
MarshallARKANSAS32019
RudyARKANSAS32024
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS32024
DelwoodILLINOIS32019
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY32024
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY31988
HaydenMISSOURI32017
MarshfieldMISSOURI32016
RichlandMISSOURI32021
BaronOKLAHOMA32023
BradyvilleTENNESSEE32004
FultonARKANSAS22023
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.