BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chuck-will's-widow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
298Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.631.6
20271.10.601.6
20281.00.571.5
20291.00.531.5
20300.980.501.5

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA152025
Dowling ParkFLORIDA122025
Broad BranchFLORIDA112025
CouncilGEORGIA112025
WalthallMISSISSIPPI111987
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA102011
JenaALABAMA92025
Cross CityFLORIDA92023
TarverGEORGIA92025
HeadlightGEORGIA92025
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI91982
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA82023
GlenmoreGEORGIA82025
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Mount PisgahSOUTH-CAROLINA82025
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA71991
Warrior StdALABAMA62025
Latham 2ALABAMA62025
Bay MinetteALABAMA62025
Seminole HlsFLORIDA62000
TelogiaFLORIDA61984
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI61987
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA62025
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA62023
WhitehouseALABAMA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.