BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chuck-will's-widow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
296Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Chuck-will's-widow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.51–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.51–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.641.5
20261.10.611.5
20271.00.581.5
20280.990.541.4
20290.960.511.4

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Chuck-will's-widow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad BranchFLORIDA162024
TarverGEORGIA122024
HeadlightGEORGIA112024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI111987
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA102011
Cross CityFLORIDA92023
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI91982
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA82023
Dowling ParkFLORIDA82023
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA82024
Mount PisgahSOUTH-CAROLINA82021
HilliardFLORIDA72024
MillenGEORGIA72021
BargesGEORGIA72024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA71991
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA72024
MclellanALABAMA62024
Seminole HlsFLORIDA62000
TelogiaFLORIDA61984
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA62024
OsceolaFLORIDA62023
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI61987
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA62023
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Latham 2ALABAMA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.