BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Aerial Insectivores In Alaska

All statesAlaska

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -67%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1972.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Aerial insectivores as a group have fallen sharply in Alaska, down 67% since 1972.

Aerial Insectivores In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Alaska is projected to fall about 90% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-90%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Alaska is projected to fall about 90% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.780.007.8
20270.660.007.7
20280.540.007.6
20290.410.007.4
20300.290.007.3

Member Species In Alaska

Aerial insectivores species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-99%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae-99%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae-92%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-85%
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae-32%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae-23%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae-8%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae+54%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+77%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae+78%
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+138%
Yellow-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidae17×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.