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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Alaska has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+90%Since 1973
115Routes In State
50Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Alaska

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Alaska: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Alaska is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029
1.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.395% range
±39%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.006.6
20261.30.006.5
20271.20.006.4
20281.10.006.3
20291.00.006.3

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Alaska.
Togiak River9120051994
Tupuknuk5519951995
Kanektok Riv5420051995
Wasilla4219831983
Moose Pass3919851983
Dillingham3720191993
King Salmon3620241993
Cottonwood3619901987
Cordova2420241983
Skilak Lake2119851977
Goose Bay2019821975
Sitka (Short)1919921984
Gweek River1520021994
Goodnews Bay1220052000
Unalakleet River1220231998
Galena (Short)1120241985
Hather Creek1120241993
Matanuska1019831982
Chena Hot Sp919901986
Dillingham (Short)919841984
Juneau820241983
Willow720241993
Sitka720241993
Kotzebue720242001
Copper River620111993

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.