BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Kentucky has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

39×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Kentucky: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.93.6
20272.82.03.7
20282.92.13.7
20293.02.13.8
20303.02.23.9

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eastview2520251978
Glencoe1220181994
Dixon1120242005
Morganfield920252024
Monticello820142007
Mckee820252022
Mcbrayer820222003
Cedar Grove620242005
Hegira520232006
Pleasurevill520251993
Sewell Shop520221997
Campton520212008
Hodgenville 2520232008
Lebanon Junction520252001
Kings Mtn420252008
Drakesboro420031987
Million 2420242010
Riverqueen320252008
Merrimac320231978
East Union320251993
Bays Fork320192007
Cumberlnd Gp220162011
Lovelacevile220252013
Shiloh220211995
Apex220232005

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.