BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Kentucky has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

35×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Kentucky: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.83.5
20262.71.93.5
20272.82.03.6
20282.82.03.7
20292.92.13.7

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eastview1220241978
Glencoe1220181994
Dixon1120242005
Pleasurevill920241993
Monticello820142007
Mcbrayer820222003
Lovelacevile620222013
Cedar Grove620242005
Mckee620242022
Lebanon Junction620232001
Hegira520232006
Sewell Shop520221997
Campton520212008
Hodgenville 2520232008
Kings Mtn420222008
Drakesboro420031987
Morganfield420242024
Million 2420242010
Keysburg320241999
Hustonville320242007
Merrimac320231978
Plum320232009
Bays Fork320192007
Cumberlnd Gp220162011
Shiloh220211995

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.