BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Kentucky has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

35×Since 1985
46Routes In State
40Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Kentucky

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Kentucky: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029
2.9Projected 2029 index
2.1–3.795% range
±14.6%Backtest error
19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.61.83.5
20262.71.93.5
20272.82.03.6
20282.82.03.7
20292.92.13.7

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Kentucky.
Eastview1220241978
Glencoe1220181994
Dixon1120242005
Pleasurevill920241993
Monticello820142007
Mcbrayer820222003
Lovelacevile620222013
Cedar Grove620242005
Mckee620242022
Lebanon Junction620232001
Hegira520232006
Sewell Shop520221997
Campton520212008
Hodgenville 2520232008
Kings Mtn420222008
Drakesboro420031987
Morganfield420242024
Million 2420242010
Keysburg320241999
Hustonville320242007
Merrimac320231978
Plum320232009
Bays Fork320192007
Cumberlnd Gp220162011
Shiloh220211995

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.