BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Tennessee has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

15×Since 1992
39Routes In State
33Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Tennessee

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Tennessee: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029
2.3Projected 2029 index
1.5–3.095% range
±46.7%Backtest error
19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.01.32.7
20262.11.42.8
20272.11.42.9
20282.21.52.9
20292.31.53.0

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Tennessee.
Corryton Rd1020191992
Lovell920192007
Jefferson Cty920111992
Allens Brdge720231989
Belotes Bend620182009
Peytonsville620242004
Smokey Jct620222005
Jones Gap520162005
Tullahoma520152014
Mt Olive520242004
Mansfield420242001
Collinwood420242016
Lewis Forest420192008
Jasper420241997
Oliver Spgs420221998
Whiteville320132010
Signal Mtn220242005
Tiptonville220212000
Brownsville220002000
Cornpone220242002
Mecca220232016
Tellico220212021
Bradyville220032002
Glen220242004
Elk Valley220192004

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.