BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.001.0
20270.190.001.0
20280.190.001.0
20290.180.001.0
20300.180.001.00

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Tree Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla2420181977
Angel Fire920021992
Gallinas320211993
Farmington219871987
Angel Fire 2220252005
Maxwell220142014
Ojo Sarco120071968
Fence Lake120111987
Shiprock119991999
San Antonio119771977
Roswell119761976
Mcgaffey119981998

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.