BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Missouri has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+161%Since 1974
70Routes In State
49Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Missouri

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Missouri: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.33–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029
0.69Projected 2029 index
0.33–1.195% range
±24.8%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.650.291.0
20260.660.301.0
20270.670.311.0
20280.680.321.0
20290.690.331.1

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Missouri.
Eugene1020242014
Graniteville920182006
Queen City820222017
Watson720152006
Rensselaer620041993
New Hampton520212014
Tarkio519791979
House Springs520232017
Lucerne420182018
Sedalia420152009
Pulaski320161975
Akers320121989
Wesco320232013
Filley320181989
Sni Mills319691969
Madison320242007
Sticklervill320231976
West Plains320172017
Osage Beach320231999
Kirksville320172002
New Point320232002
Palace320222022
Norborne220212021
Cascade220242023
Elmo220222017

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.