BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Virginia has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

26×Since 1972
66Routes In State
51Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Virginia

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Virginia: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Virginia is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.3–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029
3.3Projected 2029 index
2.3–4.495% range
±18%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.12.04.1
20263.12.14.2
20273.22.24.3
20283.32.24.3
20293.32.34.4

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Virginia.
Brandon2520242012
Cape Charles1320181993
Blacksburg1320241988
Lake Anna1220242021
Iron Mtn.1220112011
W Augusta820241998
Natural Brid820241996
Appomattox820232000
Covington720241995
Stanley620241983
David620121988
Isom620242005
Amherst620242000
Saltville620241993
Elamsville620162003
Gladys620212001
Carters Brdg520142001
Chincoteag W520241993
Surry520061994
Iron Mountain 2520132012
Brandy Station520242017
Iron Mountain 3520142014
Star Tannery420241981
Port Royal420191993
Big Island420241996

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.