BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1990.

12×Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.69–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.69–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.572.5
20271.50.602.5
20281.60.632.5
20291.60.662.5
20301.60.692.6

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gretna 22320232021
Piester Lake1420252013
Kennedy1120251993
Bartley1020252003
Johnson720251992
Eagle Creek720232005
Chambers720252025
Berwyn 2620252025
Hendley520242024
Holbrook420212017
Hay Springs420242019
Lyons420252018
Pine Ridge320222008
Surprise320122009
Richland320111995
Dalton320252015
Sparta320252011
Liberty 2320072007
Julian220191996
Liberty219921976
Belvidere220192019
Kearney220241998
Sumner220252025
Swan Lake220251992
Johnstown220242001

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.