BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1990.

12×Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.68–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.68–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.552.5
20261.50.582.5
20271.60.612.5
20281.60.652.6
20291.60.682.6

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gretna 22320232021
Kennedy1120241993
Bartley720242003
Eagle Creek720232005
Hendley520242024
Holbrook420212017
Piester Lake420242013
Hay Springs420242019
Nenzel420242018
Lyons420232018
Pine Ridge320222008
Surprise320122009
Richland320111995
Liberty 2320072007
Wheeler Co320241993
Julian220191996
Johnson220241992
Liberty219921976
Belvidere220192019
Kearney220241998
Johnstown220242001
Gordon220242002
Ringgold220152010
Brownlee220231990
Mullen220232000

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.