BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in North Carolina has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

22×Since 1972
56Routes In State
34Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in North Carolina

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in North Carolina: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.38–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029
0.97Projected 2029 index
0.38–1.695% range
±46.5%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.890.301.5
20260.910.321.5
20270.930.341.5
20280.950.361.5
20290.970.381.6

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Tree Swallow in North Carolina.
Sturgills1720242009
Brevard1320242005
Todd1020231996
Cherokee920242011
Cullowhee820242013
Hendersonvil820242003
Oteen720242003
Siloam620242009
Lloyd Xroads620012001
Linville520241994
Bethel520182018
Fontana420242017
Sheffield420232015
Bullock420232015
Youngsville320241972
French Broad River320242003
Mcginnis Crossroad320222022
Marshall320242009
Busick220021995
Saxapahaw220182017
Oakboro220242024
Arcola220242001
Call220242014
Old Trap220112011
Cypress Lakes220172004

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.